Tuesday, February 24, 2015

Southwest Regional Bracket Analysis

   It's Class AA Southwest Regional week for the best wrestlers in Districts 5, 6 and 7. As you should know by now, the tournament will be held at Canon-McMillan High School this year. Wrestling begins at 5 p.m. on Friday with the preliminary round followed by the quarterfinals. 
   The top six placewinners at each weight qualify for the state tournament in Hershey next week. The extra qualifier means that all quarterfinal winners on Friday night are guaranteed top six finishes and thus punch their tickets to the big dance. 
   Brackets can be found at these two links - Escape Sports and pa-wrestling.comBleacher Coaches is also expected to host a live chat about the tournament tomorrow night at 8:30 p.m. 
   Later in the week, I'll have a preview and predictions for Friday's Bedford Gazette.
   As time permits, which it should, I expect to jump in on the chat. For now, here's some bracket analysis:

106 Pounds
   Jefferson-Morgan's Gavin Teasdale drew the bye here and is 39-0. At the very bottom of the draw is Chestnut Ridge's Aaron Burkett, 35-4. Certainly, a rematch of the Thomas Subaru final between these two would be highly anticipated. Burkett took Teasdale down early in the first period and pushed him to overtime before losing, 7-5. The other local is Tussey Mountain's Oaklee Brode, who gets Derry's Shawn Broadway in the opening round. That bout is in Teasdale's half of the bracket. Burkett will wrestle Mount Union's Josh Boozel in the first round.

113 Pounds
   District 6 champ Max Murin of Central Cambria took the bye. I would expect the title battle here to be between Murin, Penn Cambria's Nolan Link, and McGuffey's Gage Nicolella. Link beat Murin for the Thomas championship before Murin avenged it in the D6 final two weekends ago. In the latest Off the Mat rankings, Murin is third, Link is seventh, and Nicolella ninth. Link-Nicolella could be a good semifinal. Bedford County has three representatives with D5 champ Zach Clark, runner-up Dylan Williams, and third-place Liam Flaherty. Though Northern Bedford's Clark is a district winner, on paper Williams might have a better shot at the semifinals this week. Clark would likely get Link in a quarterfinal, while Chestnut Ridge's Williams would see either Mount Pleasant's Alex Miscovich or West Branch's Joey Couteret. Williams didn't wrestle Miscovich or Couteret at the Thomas Subaru Tournament, but they're a notch or two below Link in my opinion. Flaherty has Ellwood City's Tyler Alberts first and would see Murin next if he wins the opener.

120 Pounds
   This is a very strong weight at the top that features five of the top 12 wrestlers in the state rankings by Off the Mat. It starts with Huntingdon's Collin Glorioso, who is 36-2 and has the first round bye. Also up in his half is Burgettstown's Austin McDermitt, who was the WPIAL runner-up to Jefferson-Morgan's Brendan Howard. Howard, in the bottom of the draw, is ranked sixth and McDermitt is 10th. Glorioso-McDermitt is a likely semifinal with the other being Howard against the quarterfinal winner of Chestnut Ridge's Justin McCoy vs. Westmont's Carnell Andrews, a battle of highly touted freshmen who haven't disappointed in their varsity debut seasons. Howard beat McCoy in the Thomas Subaru Tournament semifinals. Andrews is ranked 11th and McCoy 12th by OTM.

126 Pounds
   Bedford's Jonathan Gabriel goes after his first regional title from the bye position at 126. He'll get the winner of Central Cambria's Ian Ostrowski and Burrell's Dillan Jeffery for his quarterfinal bout. Also in the top half of the bracket are South Allegheny's Justo Hernandez and Penns Valley's Curtis Decker. Gabriel is ranked second in the state by Off the Mat and first by PA Power. Heading the Off the Mat rankings is Forest Hills' Tristan Law, who is on the bottom half. Also there is Bentworth's Hunter Neely, the D7 champ who is ranked 10th. 

132 Pounds
   Derry's George Phillippi, a former state champion, has the bye and is at the top of this bracket. He's ranked second by Off the Mat, while other players here could include sixth-ranked Joe Swank of Berlin, ninth-ranked Adam George of Richland, 12th-ranked Shane Ging of South Fayette, 13th-ranked Jake Boozel of Mount Union, and 14th-ranked Kody Komara of Freedom. I'm also interested to see how Chestnut Ridge's Morgan Deremer does. The Lion sophomore gave Swank all he wanted in a 6-5 bout in the District 5 final, and he beat Boozel twice in the Thomas Subaru Tournament. He draws Avonworth's Darion Trimmer first, with George potentially awaiting in the quarterfinals. Everett's Ben Stover has Ging in an opening round matchup.

138 Pounds
   South Fayette's Mike Carr is unbeaten and in my view the favorite here. The bottom half is pretty loaded, with Chestnut Ridge's Derrick Claar, Southmoreland's Evan Myers, and Central Cambria's Tommy Opdenhoff among potential finalists. Claar, ranked 10th, and Myers, ranked 11th, could see each other in the quarterfinals. Northern Bedford's Carter Replogle is in the top half of the bracket and wrestles McGuffey's Luke Desmond to begin Friday's action in the weight class.

145 Pounds
   Interesting bracketing here which was alluded to by Eric Knopsnyder earlier in the week - Knop's Knotes. Jeannette's Gio Vonne Sanders got the bye, but lost twice to Ligonier Valley's Robby Patrick who is the de-facto third seed. Somerset's Austin Hemminger won the District 5 Tournament and was a well-deserved recipient of the event's Outstanding Wrestler Award. The bottom half of the draw is intriguing, with Patrick possibly seeing Mount Pleasant's Austin Mears, a wrestler he lost to earlier in the season, in the quarterfinals. Also there are Hemminger, North Star's Tevin Mostoller, Forest Hills' Travis Templeton, and Avella's Nick Kusich. 

152 Pounds
   This weight has three of the top six in Off the Mat's rankings — South Park's Jake Wentzel, Huntingdon's Jacob Oliver, and Chestnut Ridge's Trent Crouse — who have five losses between them and were all district champions. Wentzel is on top of the bracket and drew the bye with Oliver and Crouse in the bottom half. Crouse could see Mount Pleasant's Ethan Charlesworth, ranked 13th, in the quarterfinals. This tournament has always been a problem for Crouse, but I would be stunned not to see him in the top six this weekend. 

160 Pounds
   Oddly enough, Off the Mat has numbers 2, 3, and 6 ranked here just like at 152. That begins with South Fayette's J.J. Walker, a returning state finalist. Walker is ranked second in the state and has the bye at Canon-Mac this weekend. Blairsville's Drew Doak is unbeaten and at the bottom of the bracket. He is ranked third, while Berlin's Bryce Fochtman is sixth and on Doak's side. This is a great weight that also includes Westmont's Anthony Walters, ranked eighth, Beth-Center's Jason Stay, ranked 10th, Huntingdon's Jon Wagner, ranked 12th, and Chestnut Ridge's Colby Hillegass, ranked 15th. Hillegass sees Indiana's Bobby Bell first and could get Walters in the quarterfinals. 

170 Pounds
   Four of the top 10 in OTM's rankings reside here at 170. South Park's Greg Bulsak, Cambria Heights' Levi Niebauer, Beth-Center's Anthony Welsh, and Berlin's Taylor Cahill are the top contenders to head to Hershey as a regional champion. Niebauer got the bye, with Bulsak and Cahill on a collision course for the semifinals. Welsh is in the top with Niebauer. Looking for a darkhorse? Try West Branch's Luke Slippey, who is ranked 13th and will likely see Bulsak on Friday night. Bedford's Daniel Brett, who drew Kittanning's Marco Duncan, and Everett's Wes Graham, who drew Southmoreland's Brennan Coles, are both in the top half of the bracket.

182 Pounds
   Penns Valley's Corey Hazel is ranked second in the state and has the bye at this weight. I would have him as the favorite, but beyond that, it could be pretty wide open. Jefferson-Morgan's Bill Bowlen, Beth-Center's Nico Brown, Juniata's Taylor Foster, South Fayette's Brett Beltz, and Southern Huntingdon's Scott Carbaugh are all ranked in the 8-15 range. Chestnut Ridge's Brandyn Beaver has a tough first round assignment with the ninth-ranked Brown. I wouldn't rule out Berlin's Storm McDonald or Meyersdale's Christian Hutzell from finding a place in the top six.

195 Pounds
   Blairsville's Scott Thompson and Chestnut Ridge's Conner Buttry are favorites here on their sides of the 195-pound bracket. The other district champion here is Burrell's Robert Scherer, who is in Buttry's half but hasn't had a whole lot of success with Buttry in the past. Thompson is ranked second by Off the Mat with Buttry fourth. Scherer is 11th and Berlin's Toby Cahill, in Thompson's part of the draw, is 12th. 

220 Pounds
   This is a loaded bracket with the top two ranked wrestlers, West Branch's Buzzy Maines, and Kittanning's Jake Robb. That is the likely final and perhaps a state final preview, but there are others who will vie for state berths. They include (from top to bottom in the bracket) South Allegheny's Seth Hitchens, Yough's Tom Sever, Meyersdale's Ty Smith, Westmont's Josiah Jones, and United's Tyler Oliver. In the Off the Mat Rankings, Jones is seventh, Oliver is eighth, Sever is ninth, and Hitchens is 11th.

285 Pounds
   Burrell's Allan Beattie drew the bye and is the favorite at heavyweight. He is ranked first, with Southmoreland's Jake Beistel second by OTM. Jefferson-Morgan's Ian Wolfe, United's Andrew Deitman, and Southern Huntingdon's Nick Winfield are ranked in the lower half of Off the Mat. Chestnut Ridge's Shane Davis and Berlin's Anthony Collins, first and second in District 5, could be sleeper picks. Davis gets Blairsville's Jake Smith first and could see Wolfe in the quarterfinals.

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